development

Climate change and development

The issue of climate change and development is starting to come together quite sharply. Two recent reports bring out the problem in its starkest reality.

‘In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement’, a joint report of CARE, the Earth Institute of Columbia University, and the United Nations University, points to the effects that climate change will have on migration.

The second paper, the Oxfam Briefing Report ‘Hang Together or Hang Separately’ looks at global issues and maps the difficulty of achieving a sufficient cut in greenhouse gas emissions, and with equity.

The effects of climate change on migration will be on the one hand fairly gradual, some of which are already being seen; on the other hand they will be devastating for many communities. ‘In Search of Shelter’ identifies a set of issues that climate change adaptation will have to address:

Glacier melt: While this is leading to some increased flow while the glaciers are melting, when they are gone, the summer river flow and summer river crops are gone as well. The solution for many countries including China and India will be more dams to regulate the flow, which also entails the massive environmental impact that these dams will bring.

Hurricanes, cyclones and storm surges are creating havoc in Central America and Caribbean as well as the east Coast of India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines in particular. As the frequency increases, many coastal areas becoming increasingly uninhabitable. In December 2008, 38,000 people in Papua New Guinea were made homeless by storm surges and king tides along the Manus, East Sepik, New Ireland, and Bougainville coasts.

Land degradation is increasing due to longer dry spells.  This is occurring in most countries but in Africa the frequency of drought seems to be increasing and the traditional adaptation methods of the African nomads are no longer working. Population pressures and other land uses together with drier seasons means that the land is degraded and will take much longer to recover. This puts real pressure on people and on food supplies and the complex knock-on effects that this brings.

The Oxfam report on the other hand maps what is required if global warming is to be halted and it is grim reading indeed. They found that what is needed is a 40 per cent drop in greenhouse gas emissions, by 2020, in Western countries which nobody has proposed as yet, plus $150 billion per year to the Global Mitigation and Finance mechanism to help developing countries make the radical changes necessary.  This fund would come from the auction or levy of emissions allowances. This is a huge ask and is unlikely to eventuate, so the question then is how bad does the climate induced migration become, and what will its effect be on the poorest. It might well be that in 20 years time we see the 1990s and early 2000s and the relative growth and successes in developing countries and their development then as a passing mirage.

Further reading

Danny Chivers, New Internationalist (2009). Just or bust? Can Copenhagen talks deliver climate justice?
The Climate Institute (2009). G20 and the Low Carbon Recovery.
Global Humanitarian Forum (2009). Human Impact Report on Climate Change: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis.
UNDP (2007). Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world.
Climate change and IFAD

© 2009 People and Development.